I’ve just read that the hospitality sector says they expect to see a substantial rise in the price of beer by Christmas because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukraine produces about 10% of the worlds grain, the war is having a significant impact on production and so the price of barley has, or is expected to rise by about 30%.

So lets see if that stacks up.

When making beer at home I pay roughly £30 for a 25kg sack of malted barley – that’s £1.20 per kg. The breweries probably pay much less since they buy in much larger quantities. My ‘standard’ brew uses about 4.5kg to make about 40 pints. Thus cost of barley per pint is therefore 1.20 x 4.5 / 40 = 13.5p/pint.

Of course that doesn’t tell the whole story – overall costs of hops, energy and other sundries increases this to about 25p/pint. Everything extra you pay at the bar is tax, duty, staff costs, distribution costs, overheads etc, and of course profit. A bar is a business, and so will charge the highest price the owner thinks the local market will stand.

So based on this the justifiable increase will be just 30% of 13.5p. That’s just 4p. Anything else is just people in the supply chain, including HMG, making more money out of you. Oh I know they’ll say it’s more complicated than that, and that many overheads are based a proportion of the manufacturing costs, etc, etc, but I don’t buy it, and nor should you!

It’s a shame – pubs and the brewing industry seem hell-bent on self-immolation.